Day 29 in the Corona house: And another hundred people just got off of the train..

Day 29 in the corona house

Today’s musical track seems strangely appropriate for a number of reasons. It’s taken from the musical Company by Stephen Sondheim, a lyricist and musician who you’ll find towards the top of my personal list of favourites.

As a choice, it’s relevant as well as being strangely ironic. It relates to the constant churn of people in cities such as New York with it’s daily new arrivals and those who ‘go away’ as the lyrics mention. It’s unclear whether that’s merely a reference to leaving New York or something more fundamental, but it does emphasise the transient nature of a city as well as those who live within it.

In terms of the corona virus, the thought of a lively, bustling city with residents and workers jostling through it now seems strange. It’s like watching a film in which people were smoking in a restaurant – it’s something you know happened but it seems like a lifetime ago. How strange it now seems to see television programmes with liberal hand shaking, contact and interaction. I’m sure we will return to it, but those scenes seem almost mildly threatening when seen through the lens of the current emergency.

Vaughan suggested an alternative title – and another hundred people just got Covid in Spain but that needed too much explanation to avoid appearing crass which was certainly not his intention.

Analogy v. Metaphor

I admit to thinking twice about going with the choice myself. What was I suggesting the train is? A literal means of transport? Am I cheapening someone’s death by saying they just got off the train ? A potential minefield of how to offend anyone having lost someone or reading with a particular sensitivity to the words chosen. I could also hear a former English teacher, Mr Hector suggesting it may not be wise to confuse a reader with analogy or metaphor.

In the end, I’ve decided my readers (in as much as there are any) are bright enough to recognise either and open minded enough to go with the flow. It did start me thinking though – so the first train, the literal.

London overground, tube and bus travel are massively reduced

Despite the reports of thousands of Londoners flouting the regulations and undertaking all forms of extreme sunbathing, this isn’t the experience I’ve been living. Nor, in terms of transport is it supported by the statistics. The available figures are from the end of last week but show the overwhelming majority of people are correctly staying at home and avoiding unnecessary travel.

Transport for London are reporting tube use down by 90 to 95% based on the equivalent day/week the previous 2 or 3 years. In London that’s millions of journeys per day that haven’t been taken over the past two to three weeks. That significant reduction in terms of percentage reductions is also similar to figures from the RAC and AA both showing reductions of around 80% in routine vehicle traffic over the same period.

The Waggy finger of judgement.

Even with those good figures, I have heard professional level tutting and the wagging finger of judgement saying this is still not enough. I should say I fully support the stay in, don’t take unnecessary journeys message and enforcement where that is necessary, proportionate and not doing so would damage public trust or safety.

The current complaints are some people on the train or tube don’t look like key workers. Also, there has been a spike (a slight increase of around 5%) in vehicle traffic over the past week. Just before rushing to judgement could I make a couple of points to encourage a less sanctimoneous default position.

Not all people on the tube or train look like key workers: I haven’t been on the train, tube, bus (or in the car) for over 29 days, nor do I intend to. I’m also not supporting or apologising for those who think the rules don’t apply to them – we should all stay in, in line with the regulation.
However, those regulations permit me to travel for medical purposes, to travel to work (if that can’t be done remotely), to travel to provide care and assistance for someone who is vulnerable or to carry out certain legal obligations). Those doing so quite lawfully may well not look like a key worker – whatever they look like.

Dorothy “Dot” Brennan (formerly Cotton)

A former work colleague told me how she was on her way to deliver prescriptions (contactless) to relatives and felt most uncomfortable and as if she had to justify why she was on the overground.

I’m in favour of those kicking the behind out of things being dealt with. For others who don’t appear to look like they should to us, I would refer you to Ms Dorothy Cotton

Judge not lest ye be judged

Vehicle use has nudged up in the last week. As to the blip in vehicle use, it may indicate some breaches, though personally, I doubt that is happening on anything other than the edges. It may also be explained by the increasing amount of small businesses now offering delivery. The two week lag may well have given time for many to find ways to stay in business within the governmental restrictions. Let’s be driven by the data trend rather than any one or two days without knowing what may have caused or contributed to them.

In any event, if the train is taken literally we can say far far more than the hundred mentioned have got off it in recent weeks. But what of the metaphorical trains. I think and hope it might be a bit clumsy for me to refer to those dying of the virus as getting off the train. It might equally refer to those getting off the viral train by recovering from it’s effects.

For the purpose of this discussion, I have removed the US track from the chart as it is so dramatic in its exponential curve, that it squashes the European countries into the noise. However, if you look at the graphs tracking new cases, it does give some hope that the impacts of social distancing are starting to show in the data.

Italy has transitioned from exponential to linear in it’s increase and may even be starting to level out (in the sense that the daily increase is reducing its rate). It’s too early to be sure but the inclines for all European states mapped apart from Spain look as though improvements are starting to show up. For this reason, it looks unlikely that those social distancing and wider restrictions are likely to be relaxed any time in April. The current emergency regulations end on 16th April. That’s just after Easter, though my money would be on them being extended in at least their current form until the end of the month, probably until after the May day Bank Holiday weekend.
How we then scale back or transition into a state that is less restrictive is the big question, but thankfully not one for me today. Given the apparent slowdown in infections which in turn has slowed the intensive demand on the NHS to a less devastating level, I for one am happy to abide with the continued social distancing and sheilding however difficult and frustrating that is at times.
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The title for today’s post took comes from Stephen Sondheim’s musical Company. For those who like to hear the associated track, it may be heard on the control below.

Day 19 in the Corona house: I’ve got a little list

I’ve got a little list – Opera Australia (The Mikado)

I wouldn’t class myself as a dedicated Gilbert and Sullivan fan. As is often the case with those of us who like words, it’s the lyrics that grab my attention and often admiration. However, I’m far from an officionado of their cannon of work. That said, both yesterday and today, I’ve been unable to better their numbers for summing up the general feel of the blog post.

Day 19 in the Covfefe house

It sounds very strange to say nineteen isn’t a very high profile number. I suppose what I mean is it’s one of those numbers that don’t feature in promotions such as 3 for 2 or multi-buy purchases. It isn’t quantitative such as 12 or 144 (dozen and score) and it didn’t pull the whole goth unlucky stunt like 13 did. You don’t see it marking milestone birthdays or forming natural numerical divisions. Indeed, if it hadn’t been for Paul Hardcastle in the 1980’s it could have been almost as low profile as 37. That is until a little virus with a nominal number 19 attached boosted it into our collective consciousness.

The nineteenth day in the Corona house has been one dominated by lists. Vaughan finds them a mechanism to give the day a little structure, gain a sense of having completed something constructive and even finds it eases any background anxiety somewhat. I don’t, however, that didn’t stop him from making me one anyway which I’m pleased to report has been completed, or will be once this post has been completed.

I often raise a wry smile from those who know me well as I do have something of a capability to plan ahead. Vaughan famously quotes a planning spreadsheet for our wedding which had over 350 lines each representing a task. That was a bit of an exception, but you get the idea. I should warn the Royal Mail that I’m going to be calling on their Santa list a little early this year as I’ve been developing a corporate naughty or nice list.

It may be of some use to others to read through mine or even keep there own for those people or organisations we will remember for all the right or wrong reasons after this crisis has passed.

If as a reader of this blog you come across examples of companies or organisations to go on either my list for outstanding contribution or outstanding cockwomblery please feel free to add them with a little detail as comments to this post. If we have sufficient for an update or any amazing examples I’d certainly welcome everyone knowing about it.

Could do better

So a quick run down of what caused some of those listed to land where they have. Let’s start with a few people and organisations from whom I would have expected more.

We all know the hospitality sector is being hit pretty hard. We also know it’s been given a fair bit of support in the last ten days. It’s one thing for the local chippie to shut temporarily, even though most haven’t, but what of millionaire celebrity chefs.
Gordon Ramsey has reportedly laid off around five hundred of his staff from across his Michelin star and fine dining establishments. Multiple press reports indicate this was done with a meeting and confirmation by text reading:

Gordon Ramsey, celebrity chef

I am writing to confirm that you have been given notice that your contract of employment will be terminated and you will be paid four weeks notice.

You will be placed on garden leave for the duration of your notice. Your P45, final holiday pay and any other monies owing will be forwarded to you in due course.

The staff have not had their posts held for them if/when the venues reopen and social media has been replete with staff spilling the proverbial if not literal beans claiming to have been ‘treated like sh*t’ by the celebrity chef. In a climate where businesses are straining to retain jobs these sweeping lay offs are not what I would expect from such a culinary luminary. I don’t think I’ll be going to Petrus any time soon even if I could afford the £300 per head (approx) for 3 courses and some vino.

Also in the ‘could do better corner’ are Rick Stein who has informed the staff in his chain of restaurants that they won’t be paid for the time the restaurant is closed although he has pulled up short of terminating their contracts. I must remember this the next time either of them praise their staff and say how endebted they are to them on their websites for example.

A similar criticism is levelled at Weatherspoons who won’t be paying their staff anything while they are closed and a particular mention in despatches for Mike Ashley of Sport Direct. He tried to stay open and keep the money rolling in – claimed his trading was vital to the welfare of the nation. Nice try Mike but no cigar this time.

Better examples

So much for the wander down crass and clumsy crescent, what about a tour along quality street. Whatever you think of his vaccums or their big wagons, special mention should go to JCB and Dyson Plc for rising to the governments challenge and re-tooling some of their engineering lines to produce ventilators.

In a move which is either superb marketing or schere bravado – or possibly both, the Government asked Dyson to manufacture a few thousand ventilators to their specification. Dyson (in terms) said well we could, but why would we?

The Dyson factory in Wiltshire looked at the spec and the response was – well they’re just not very good are they. We can do better than that, which it appears they then set about doing.

Some criticise Dyson for moving some of their production offshore and I don’t seek to defend that. However, the first 10,000 ventilators redesigned, patented and in production in Wiltshire should be arriving with the NHS in mid to late April. I for one was impressed with not only the willingness to take on the task at all, but to do so in the same timescale whilst improving the end product. Dyson Plc is on this years nice list.

As time is pressing this evening, (I must shortly be a combination of barmand and cameraman – a combination not known for … well anything really). Vaughan is about to tackle chicken cacchiatori on Grub with V-Dub so I must get him wired for sound. For that reason only glowing mentions in passing for both Brewdolph Brewery in Oxforshire who have turned their brewing process into one producing hand sanitisers and their first 10,000 gallons will be ready later this week. Once the current madness is over I trust they have a nice side line in the making for their pubs – can’t think of a better way of cleaning those pipes out.

In contrast to Weatherspoon and those celebrity chefs, it’s worth singing the praises of a local brewery and pub chain. East Anglian Greene King brewers have told their tennants to stay in their pubs, keep their homes (most live on the premises) no need to pay rent consider it a fee for providing security to the premises – oh and by the way we’ll still pay your wages for as long as we can. – Odd how the multi million pound chains can’t manage it but a medium sized local business can. – Discuss.

Those of you who know me well will know I can have an inappropriate sense of humour at times, earlier this afternoon was one such time.

Masks by Ralph Lauren

It may be wrong of me but I was both impressed and secretly amused to hear that the design and fashion chain Ralph Lauren have also joined the list of unexpected suppliers to the NHS. In what is a natural if unexpected fit, they will provide hospitals with surgical and protective masks. I have nothing but praise and thanks for them but couldn’t help but think – I bet they’ll leave the label on.

I could imagine disucssions between nursing staff. Dior? – No sweetie Ralph Lauren. I’m just waiting to hear that L’oreal are joinng the production efforts churning out masks emblasoned with ‘because I’m worth it’ Highly inappropriate possibly, but I’ve been isolating for nineteen days, you get your laughs where you can.

I hope we remember the relative actions and approaches of these organisations in our buying and patronage once we emerge from this rather bleak period. I will certainly try to.

Hoping to redeem myself however latterly, here are this evening’s Grub with V-Dub productions. Easy to follow and I can vouch for how tasty it is .. The chicken cacciatori isn’t bad either.

Now to look at some IT for watch parties. I don’t know how people manage this self- isolation …. there just isn’t enough time in the day.

Day 14 in the Corona house: And the money keeps rolling in (and out).

Day 14 in the Corona house

The last day in self-imposed quarantine and today’s blog entry takes its title from Evita. I’ve had a number of people ask whether all the daily updates in this series have been taken from song titles or musical numbers. Jules Phillips and Karen Young were the first to notice the linkage which was always an extra mental diversion on my part. It’s been quite fun finding a musical descriptor for the daily update. I hope you’ll excuse me sending multiple replies by answering here. They have all been songs, many but not all from musicals. The full list being:

1. Turn a different corner – George Michael
2. Tell me more tell me more – Grease
3. Stuck in the middle with you – Stealers Wheel
4. The Scientist – Coldplay
5. A little bit of history repeating – Shirley Bassey
6. How do you solve a problem ask Korea – Sound of music
7. I am reviewing the situation – Oliver
8. Hey, hey, I saved the world today – Eurythmics
9. Empty chairs at empty tables – Les Miserables
10. Let’s do the timewarp again – Rocky Horror picture show
11. If I only had a brain – Wizard of Oz
12. There’s got to be something better than this – Sweet charity
13. One day more – Les Miserables
14. And the money – And the money keeps rolling in (and out) – Evita

Looking at the list, I suspect I’ve over compensated by omitting my favourite musicals. Nothing from West Side Story or Phantom and two from Les Miserables (The Glums) which I can appreciate without really enjoying. I have seen Phantom over 50 times and could happily go back again whereas I’ve seen Les Miserables twice. The first time was harmless though I was largely underwhelmed. The second time was difficult although there was a lovely period in the middle when it stopped and I had an ice cream. If you’re off to see Les Mis, ice cream is the answer.

Today’s blog title chose itself. Well it chose itself in the sense that Vaughan only stopped singing it when I agreed to use it. But actually, it fitted well with the prevailing discussions. They seemed to be about whether the UK was doing enough for particular sections of the population.

Coronavirus rescue packages in £ (billions)

I’ve been reasonably happy with the response of the UK government although I don’t claim to be an expert. I’ve also revised my view of Boris Johnson since seeing his handling of the crisis. What’s not in doubt is the extent to which the money is flowing out of Government coffers. Ultimately it’s largely borrowed and at some point we’ll have to pay most or much of it back, but that’s not the priority at this time. But it is worth remembering, if only because it will come as less of a surprise when governments of whatever hue seek to recover it from us over the next five to ten years.
Without seeking to make a party political or EU point of any kind, it’s worth comparing our response compared to other countries.

Before being too critical and even allowing for the fact that some of the promised funding is in the form of loans rather than grants, the UK £330 billion is significanly more than the £41 billion of France or the £36 billion of Germany. All are dwarfed by the US who have a bill going through Capitol Hill requesting just short of $1.6 trillion, or £1.3 trillion pounds.

Looking at the current statistics on reported cases, perhaps it’s no surprise that the US is spending so much. It looks very much like the US is going to become the world epicenter of the pandemic within a couple of days as they look set to overtake Italy in terms of reported cases. Rather than paste a blurry graph here, I’ll leave those who are interested to open the graph showing the current situation across a number of countries. This will update a few times a day depending on what else we’re doing and how much cider has flowed.

Some of the spend in R&D is already starting to show promising results. Of course, we’re probably six to nine months at least from an effective vaccine in humans. However, some very intersting technological solutions from across the scientific communities. Rather than repeat them in text, if you have 20 minutes to spare and want a little encouraging news showing some hope for a way through the crisis, you could do worse than watch the most recent episode of the BBC technology programme Click.
I admit to having shamelessly copied it but hope that the potential benefit in terms of a positive message and boosting mental health may cause the BBC to overlook this matter. If not, I will of course take it down, but until I’m asked to click away. – If all else fails look forward to later updates from Brixton jail.

Some positive developements showcased by BBC Click

While on the subject of good news and wishing to reassure, I think it’s worth including one of the staff videos for a London hospital trust. It’s audience is intended to be hospital staff, but it shows the amount of work and effort being put into keeping existing, new and potential patients safe.

Just how prepared are our hospitals – A glimpse at St Barts, London.

Although I’m going to continue the blog for at least the next couple of weeks, I do need need to conclude the 14 day strand. So a few loose ends to tie off and a few words of encouragment for those who are just entering or in the early stages of self isolation.

It’s true that it’s tricky at times. Whether it’s keeping up your step count, wanting to visit friends, relatives, family or just go to the shops it does place a significant break on your personal liberty. However, the two important messages I feel I would make to anyone are these. Firstly, these difficulties aren’t major, they are merely temporary irritants and nothing compared to the traumatic times our grandparents and great grandparents lived through. It’s only 14 days for most people and it’s achievable without too much trauma.

The second and much more important is that it’s vitally important we do isolate or at least significantly reduce unnecessary contacts. I could rattle on about why, but I think most of us know why if we’re honest. In any case, I couldn’t beat this rather simple but highly effective graphic. Latest research shows the virus is more transmissable (easier to pick up) than at first thought. Instead of each person passing on to two or three people it’s now thought to be more like four or five. It’s too late to avoid the spread, but we can minimise and reduce the speed of it. Please think about each contact – they can and do make a difference.

Since yesterday’s installment, I have been mildly chastised for letting standards slip. Apparently ‘Billy the bog-roll’ jars and might even be described as course (heaven forfend). So with that in mind, may I update you with the final measurements of William the lavatory consumable. At the start of Vaughan’s experiment, we had a partial roll with a depth of 1cm remaining. William then entered the scene and will leave it with 1.5 cm remaining.
As a full roll has 3cm depth of tread the results of the Norweigan jury show that one roll of paper consumable product was used during the 14 days in question. – Now we need a comparison, over to you Jules and Leon.

Yesterday, I mentioned serendipity, defined as ‘the occurrence and development of events by chance in a happy or beneficial way’. Having been chastised for the Billy incident you can’t imagine how pleased I was to see Sheila Harrod a very musical lady of my acquaintance post this little ditty.

One thing I’ve found over the last 14 days is that you pick up old hobbies and get around to projects or interests you’ve had on hold for some time.
In my case, returning to the blog is a case in point. Although I have yet to open any of the three books I’m hoping to read during this period of purdah, I have selected them and put them in order so it’s just a case of sitting still long enough to do the reading bit. As for Vaughan, he’s rekindled his interest in cooking where that’s more than merely a practical need. One side effect of this period in isolation may well be that my clothes shrink. They’ve done it before.

Had we been at the Acreage, I would probably have looked to work on my piano. I should have taken up the offer of a travel keyboard when it was offered for just such circumstances, but that’s something for me to look forward to and the neighbours to dread when we get back to the Shire.

Another example, a man who decided to pick up a guitar. His subject of choice was panic buying. It’s quite an interesting insight into what people do in quarantine but if you’re also a fan of the guitar (Leon) than you may also appreciated it for his ability to play the instrument.

I’m afraid I’m not responsible for the vertical video syndrome – it’s how it was recorded but I know it bugs some people disproportionately. So what of the serendipity? Well, that comes in the title of his ditty. Ladies and gentlemen, may I introduce Mr Bob Bowles and his bog-roll blues.

I have further developments to report in the tour of Somerset cider producers. Today we sampled the wares of Hecks cider.

Before too much concern is expressed about our livers, we are splitting the bottles between us so it’s merely a sample and we do toast Sir Osis of the Liver the patron saint of cider drinkers before partaking.

This was a winner in my view though a tad dry for the Mem’Sahib. For those who were disturbed by Billy the bog-roll, look away now. Today’s selection is catchily and probably descriptively named Slack-ma-girdle I’ve yet to explain the local dialect, probably best left unsaid.

Finally something that made me smile a little this evening. Vaughan made a very good meal for Sunday dinner. Roast leg of lamb. Though it wasn’t the subject of Grub with V-Dub yesterday, it most certainly could have been.

The issue was what to have with it. Looking through the cupboard we hit on an unexpected find. A show reserve Margaret River (Australia) Shiraz from 2005. I looked at it doubtfully – I think it’s too good for a Sunday dinner I suggested.

Vaughan looked at the label noted it was 15 years old.. “Oh well” he says “We could all be dead in four weeks – where’s the cork screw?”

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A contender for Grub with V-Dub roast leg of lamb and a Margaret River Shiraz (2005)

Day 12 in the Corona House: There's got to be something better than this.

Day 12 in the Corona house

In an attempt to fend off the criticism that this title isn’t a song from a musical I find myself calling on pantomime in saying “Oh yes it is”.

I have to say though that among my friends which has more than its share of theatrical lovies and musical theatre fans, only Bill Meehan in the States is likely to know which without falling back on Dr. Google. We’ve been fairly busy at Gumnut working out how to do new things remotely. I’m trying to manage recruitment processes when communication is impersonal and interviews though possibly remotely seem to be on hold at present. Things are still progressing albeit in fits, starts and with considerable uncertainty.

Those who know the speed of change active in the criminal justice system will recognise that Vaughan had a more significant work challenge today. In normal times, he would have been attending the High Court for an insolvency hearing. That would require a judge, interested parties, a quarrel of lawyers and enough paper to wrap the court to be present for the hearing. As of Wednesday, that was still the Court’s position.
They did move into the 20th century yesterday with the promise of an electronic hearing via Skype. However, neither the Court nor the parties concerned had done this before so it was a promise of a voyage into the unknown. What could possibly go wrong?

I returned from walking Taz to find Vaughan online at his desk infront of a neutral wall. The Skype meeting was underway. Vaughan was listening but had to be ready to activate video had, for example, the judge or counsel asked a question of him.

All I can say is although that didn’t happen, had it been necessary, I would suggest you thinks less of Legal Eagles and more of Will Ferrel in Anchorman. More than this I cannot say. However, the important point was that the hearing although not perfect took place electronically and ‘in person’ to the extent that Skype is in person. Further an order was made that service of papers usually necessary in person, could in the current climate be undertaken via email.
Having a professional interest in dragging the Courts into the 20th century, I was keen to hear how Vaughan felt the process went. His view (as an involved party rather than a casual observer) was that it might need polishing but it could be something that would be viable in the future.

Being alone isn’t nice shock

What surprised me this morning were comments within the wall to wall coverage from people in self-isolation.

All of them mentioned how 2-3 days of reduced contact had been increadibly isolating and how it has given them an insight into what is normal for so many people, especially the elderly in the UK. How they might feel if that reduced contact came with reduced mobility or independence, no Netflix/Amazon and lasted for years I’m not certain. However, I do hope some of them might reflect on the question. If anything positive could come out of this crisis it might be reducing the isolation and exclusion of the elderly or those without extended families. Hopefully some insight might influence future actions and priorities.

There are certainly some things that may come out of this situation that have the impact to make lasting social change. Some political theorists believe meaningful change doesn’t occur incrementally but is the result of revolution or crisis. If they are correct, this may be one of those times.

I’m suddenly able to work remotely and corporate finances can be found to enhance networks, upgrade servers or buy additional bandwidth. It’s disappointing (though not particularly surprising) that business can respond in these ways quickly and effectively to support an external crisis of this kind. These are, in many cases the same businesses that have been resisting such change on the basis of an improved work/life balance for their staff. Those who care to observe the difference in response may well question how genuine claims of social or corporate responsibility are and what their claims of valuing staff have been worth to date.

Other initiatives I would welcome lasting beyond the current crisis would include things such as the silver shopping hour, reducing the 24 hour shopping hours, moving the mindset further towards work being what you do not where you do it and digitisation of the criminal justice system.

If the insolvency hearing was good enough today in digital form and if service of documents was permitted by email why should this no longer be acceptable post Covid19. Of course some adjustments are likely to be necessary but it’s all too easy to think we’ll just slip back to the former status quo once this all ends.

The Che Guevara in me would urge us all to move some of these changes from being seen as an emergency solution towards it becoming part of the new normal. Some of the current crisis is pretty lousy, but in the mix are also some pretty positive changes if we elect to maintain and develop them – something to think about maybe.

In time honoured fashion, at least time honoured over the last 12 days, something to end that I hope prompts at least a smile. I couldn’t help but wonder how Sheldon Cooper might handle the current situation. Maybe this gives us a clue. (For those, if any, who don’t know Big Bang Theory – here is 1.30 to sample. Sheldon is in the blue, Leonard in the red. That’s all you need to know. Bazinga !

If you could imagine how Sheldon might be coping in the current climate.

Is DNA splicing – the biggest breakthrough since antibiotics?

For those of us lucky enough to have been in our late teens or early twenties during the 1980’s nothing can have been more shocking or frankly frightening than the UK government’s AIDS awareness campaigns.  Hard hitting (for the time), the adverts featured funereal images including tombstones, lilies and coffins. All had the stark message, AIDS: Don’t die of ignorance

1980’s Don’t die of ignorance campaign

The messaging within these adverts was equally shocking, making it very clear that this illness was incurable and would lead to death. Little was held back in terms of the danger HIV and AIDS posed to the nation’s health. In short, they were designed to scare the bejeezus out of you and did a very good job of doing just that.

 

For a period of time in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, the HIV virus was a terrifying spectre hanging over everyone but focused particularly on gay men, sex workers and intravenous drug users. Many of these groups were seen as bringing the disease on themselves by their lifestyles. Funding for HIV research was challenging, having to overcome a ‘worthiness’ barrier among some donors.

It’s hard to describe to those who didn’t live through that period just how all-pervasive the fear of HIV and AIDS became. The ‘gay plague’ as some called it was in the long tradition of killer conditions dating back to consumption (tuberculosis) and the black death. Given this, it’s equally hard for those who experienced this to imagine a time where HIV was eradicated or made harmless to the body it infected. However, that prospect is no longer pure science fiction but is a strong possibility in the not too distant future.

The HIV Virus

The initial treatment regimes for HIV were little more than palliative, with many being highly toxic to the body. The modern era of treatment with the first protease inhibitors being introduced as recently as 1995. This development led to the introduction of increasingly effective combination therapies as the new millennium dawned. Yet despite these significant and life changing improvements, the virus remains present in the patient albeit at very low levels and in reservoir tissues such as bone marrow.  However, for the majority of HIV patients in 2017, a positive status signifies a condition which is usually entirely manageable with medication. In addition, the life expectancy of an HIV+ person on current treatments is virtually identical to that of an uninfected person (all other things being equal).

HIV cell entry mechanism

In a simplified summary, the HIV virus infects cells by first binding itself to one of the host’s own immune cells (in the case of humans a CD4 cell). This then allows the virus to attach itself to healthy cells unchallenged by the immune system of the host. Ultimately the virus will enter those cells and reproduce releasing further copies of the virus into the body. They in turn bind to a CD4 cell and the cycle continues. The ‘hijacking’ of the host’s CD4 cell means the body sees the infected cell and the virus as being part of the host and the HIV virus is effectively made invisible to the host’s immune system. This mechanism of stripping and stealing host DNA to mask the virus was initially considered so devious, it was often used as evidence that the virus must be man made. It was asserted, nature wouldn’t design something so ‘evil’.

 

However, researchers in both the fields of medicine and nanotechnologies have long been interested in this type of mechanism. Some felt that as an immune cell could be ‘tricked’ into seeing a virus as part of the host, perhaps it could also be ‘tricked’ into seeing them as a virus again. Some even suggested the virus itself may be ‘tricked’ into receiving some form of targetted treatment – the much vaunted ‘silver bullet‘ medication aimed just at the HIV virus. Now, for the first time, this is more than a pipe dream.

The dream of targetted gene therapy

Researchers have long hoped to achieve the dream of replacing portions of defective DNA in various types of gene therapy. This would allow treatments to target just target cells without damaging surrounding tissue/structures. It would also hold out the prospect of offering a more general delivery mechanism which could transfer into other areas of medicine. Some years ago, researchers in HIV treatment took the embryonic gene-editing tools of 2012 (byproducts of the Human Genome project) and linked this to the use of enzymes and proteins to ‘target’ specific cells types. This HIV research has now created some remarkable laboratory results.

 

In simple terms. they have developed a technique called CRISPR (pronounced crisper) which splices an enzyme into the DNA of a virus. In turn, this causes the virus to replicate its own RNA. This has the benefit of increasing the visibility of these cells to auto-immune processes without increasing the infective components of the virus. Although these early techniques don’t remove the virus they do take away one of its great strengths – invisibility.

Since 2015 when the possibilities of this approach began to interest the wider research communities there have been many parallel streams of research activity all producing similarly encouraging laboratory trials first in cell studies and more recently in live animal trials.

Studies have been successful in mice

Researchers at the Louis Katz school of medicine and the University of Pittsburgh conducted experiments in which mice were given HIV-1 cells causing acute HIV infection responses. In humans, this equates to the period in which the HIV virus is most infectious. However, when the CRISPR therapy was used on the infected mice, the rate of cell replication fell dramatically, by between 60 and 95%. This was so successful it was classed as a successful genetic inactivation of the HIV-1 virus in living animals.

 

If this success transfers to other species well (early trials on primates suggest similar success rates), this could mean someone infected with HIV could be treated prior to systemic infection has taken place. Even more amazing is the possibility of a person living with HIV having the virus ‘removed’ from the body post infection.

Then, things became even more interesting when combined with advances from what might be considered an unrelated area of science, criminology.  In the late 1990’s a number of criminal cases were detected thanks to improvements in DNA identification techniques. Those techniques took small amounts of DNA and effectively ‘magnified’ them by a form of cellular replication. When researchers at MIT and Harvard employed this technique alongside CRISPR splicing they found they could ‘zoom in’ on traditionally hard to find viruses. The same RNA replication used in DNA magnification meant viruses and cells could be identified and targetted even when levels in the body are remarkably low.

Other viruses are now in scope of this therapy

We have now reached the point at which viruses which have previously eluded testing start coming within the scope of this technique. The first two to fall in this space are Dengue virus (responsible for Dengue fever) and the Zika virus which has been causing birth defects most recently in South America.

 

When Zika and similar viruses was seen as in the scope of treatment, researchers into some of the more elusive cancers also began to take a strong interest. At present, the research which originated in HIV is providing new treatment possibilities for a range of infectious diseases and increasingly ways to target historically difficult cancers.

Cancer cells are the next targets

In the same way that proteins and enzymes have allowed medications to enter cells in a targetted way for HIV and potentially Zika, the same method could apply for other conditions.

 

Research in this space is currently underway for the treatment of advanced breast and cervical cancer in women and advanced prostate cancer in men. This could, at last, be the practical delivery mechanism to target specific cells alone. The magic or silver bullet could indeed have been found.

I wonder how many of those who felt the money spent on HIV was somehow less worthy or deserved would still hold those views. I suspect very few if they had known just how many unrelated illnesses could benefit in the long run. It just goes to prove you never know where research will lead and how it will be applied.

Whilst their loss would still be as terrible, the thought that those who lost their lives to HIV/AIDS may have led to research that may defeat Dengue, Zika and potentially many cancers, would perhaps, be some consolation.

Are we all going the way of the knocker-uppers?

As someone who has spent some time researching my family history, I remember the surprise when I found a distant relative of mine had been a dog-whipper in the mid 1700’s.

The Dog Whipper

As an avid dog lover this was something of a horrific finding. In fact, after a little research although not wonderful, I found that this late in century there was no longer any whipping involved. In fact, this job was a type of church-warden who’s role was to chase off (or in extremis remove) dogs during church services.

Historically, it had not been uncommon for dogs to accompany their owners to church, often with interesting consequences. The preferred tools of the trade were actually a large pair of wooden tongs often padded with leather pads  or netting with which to remove the errant hounds. The dog whippers had disappeared shortly afterwards as it became socially unacceptable to take dogs into churches.

Searching through census returns of the last hundred years it started to become something of a side interest when I found a particularly interesting occupation.

                Lamplighter

The most likely reason for the disappearance of occupations before the industrial revolution was a change in social convention. However, after the industrial revolution the introduction of technology takes over and makes roles which were once considered indispensable redundant.

One of the more common roles was the lamplighter who wandered the streets of 19th century towns lighting and extinguishing the gas lamps of the time. It was seen as one of the more secure semi-skilled jobs of the time – after all what could replace gas lights. When automated town gas and early electric lighting emerged, this didn’t stop the occupation from disappearing in little over 10 years.

A Victorian Knocker-Upper

This then brings us to the deliciously named knocker-uppers who were key to the maintenance of an effective workforce until well into the Victorian era.

Shared houses held several families, clocks and watches cost the equivalent of several weeks wages and those late for work were simply replaced by willing replacements queuing for work at factory offices. Given that, for our Victorian forebears, having a reliable timepiece could provide one of the most lucrative if antisocial jobs of the time.

Charging each household a weekly fee of between a farthing and sixpence, the household could ensure that they would be woken (or knocked) up in time for them to start work. Some contemporary authors indicate that the knocker-upper was often paid second only to the landlord. Without turning up on time the likelihood of the workhouse or penury increased beyond measure. This role continued to be vital until the introduction of factory clocks and systems such as steam whistles indicating the start of the working day. However, the demise of this job is perhaps the most sudden with the role disappearing entirely within a period of three to five years.

Fleet Street Typesetters

Of course, those with skilled occupations have managed to fight off the rise of technology for longer. The dexterity, attention to detail speed and ability to work in reversed text had made the typesetter a skilled occupation from Tudor times until well into the 1980’s.

However, this has changed with the growth of computerised technology, mobile working and the introduction of laser and thermal printing.  These developments have seen the typesetter consigned to the list of historic occupations. It was perhaps the earliest example of technology moving into and replacing skilled workers.

Despite these advances, the rise of technology was typically limited to replacement technologies or the introduction of computer processing making many administrative roles redundant. Until recent years, it was more uncommon to see more complex functions replaced. That may soon change with a new range of robotics making new inroads into areas previously very much the domain of a human workforce.

Now, robots are making significant inroads into the workplace, again following the same pattern with less skilled work. Farmhands, milkers, stockmen and cattle herders are being replaced across the United States and Europe.

Cattle no longer graze in fields with scheduled milking times but instead attend a robotic milking parlour when they want food. On arrival a robotic milking arm identifies the specific cow, scans the udder to ensure the optimum milking technique for the particular animal. It then applies a milking cup and orders food for the cow to be dispensed.

Meanwhile a second robot monitors the feed ensuring waste is reduced by sweeping feed back towards the cattle and dispensing food only to the bays where cattle are waiting. Whilst farmers report up to 30% increase in yield these advances have been far from universally popular. Concerns over the welfare of grazing animals being permanently ‘housed’ and significant reductions in workforce make this an innovation feared by many. The parlour can replace a team of 5-6 herdsmen with a single ipod or tablet control.

With increasing amounts of retail transactions completed online we have already seen retail jobs reducing as large warehouses servicing internet orders increasingly take their place.

Even here, human interaction is becoming entirely optional. The new Amazon warehousing systems have replaced significant numbers of fork lift drivers, warehouse workers, packers and dispatchers. Automated pallet, storage and picking robots ensure that goods are picked within seconds of an order having been placed. It even has hidden impacts such as the fact that fewer safety/health and safety officers are required as the warehouse spaces have effectively become human free zones reducing the opportunity for injury significantly.

Now, using similar technology, the robots are starting to breach the semi-skilled and skilled environments. Hospitals are now reducing the number of pharmacists as medicine storage, replenishment, distribution and delivery are run via a fully robotic pharmacy.

Two new build  hospitals in the United Kingdom also have an underground level with robotic porters. Guided beds are integrated with the door and lift controls and the underground level allows access across the entire hospital site.

The question for most of us remains, how liable is my job or occupation to be overtaken by automation. Of course in the past this would have been something a consultant or business analyst may have helped you assess. Now, the groundwork has been done and published on the web. (Another role bites the dust).

In recent years the questions being asked were around what we would do with all the spare time automation would give us. Now, it seems to me that we are more likely to be asking what on earth will people still be employed to do? Other than those selling or servicing robotic workforces, there is also the question of how we will earn money to buy whatever is being mechanically produced, sold and distributed. It’s a shame robots don’t need knocker-uppers !

Will long haul aviation be possible after peak oil?

My most recent long haul flight was from London Heathrow to Melbourne. I must admit that with the excitement of the trip, sustainability wasn’t at the forefront of my thoughts as I settled into a business class seat.

With a flying time approaching 24 hours, it had been a conscious effort to upgrade to the pointy end. Thankfully with a combination of frequent-flier points and not thinking about the impact on my bank balance that had been possible.

However, as we increased speed for take off, the size, weight and power of the plane came  into focus as the engine roar became suddenly much louder. I do remember thinking briefly what power the engines must be generating.

Of course modern aircraft fuel is highly refined and a relatively efficient fuel. However, you need plenty of it to get modern passenger jets off the ground. The Airbus A380 is the largest of the beasts with a fuel capacity of over 350,000 litres. It costs around £111,000 to fuel one of these monsters at today’s price (August 2015). With a return flight scheduled for next June, that fact alone helps me understand (to some extent at least) the price of the tickets.

Given the weight of the aircraft, the passengers, luggage and freight load, distances travelled and available fuel storage, it seems unlikely that there are any meaningful alternatives to jet propulsion. Whilst both electric and solar powered flight is possible, this is largely a theoretical and academic challenge which is unlikely to move into mass transportation any time soon.

However, in a time when oil reserves are being used up at an increasing rate, how will flight be possible without access to the fuel to power these incredibly powerful but thirsty engines. For some years, researchers have been predicting the gradual decline of air travel brought on by diminishing oil reserves.

Of course, people have been predicting peak oil (the point at which maximum production has been reached and supplies begin to diminish) for many years. We still produce billions of gallons per year and the idea of peak oil remains controversial. However, most commentators agree supply is likely to become more difficult after 2050.

If this is correct and given existing demands on oil for road transport, heating, manufacturing and a thousand other high profile things, it’s hard to see civil aviation competing for increasingly scarce resources. This could make flight the domain of the super rich and simply price people out of the market. What is clear is the status quo is unsustainable based on current fuels.

So, given the requirement to find a fuel which could be used in existing (or slightly modified) engines and have similar weight to power profiles are there any options? A non dissimilar situation may give us some pointers for the future.

In the late  1930’s and 1940’s, it wasn’t peak oil causing the issue, but the combined efforts of the Allied forces. During this period blockades of German ports and supply routes meant a significant drop in fuel for the German war effort. It meant alternatives had to be found if the Luftwaffe was to continue to fly,

Germany’s answer was synthetic aviation and high octane fuels derived from processing coal and lignite. Between 1938 and 1943, synthetic fuel output underwent a respectable growth from 10 million barrels to 36 million. The percentage of synthetic fuels compared to the yield from all sources grew from 22 percent to more than 50 percent by 1943. The total oil supplies available from all sources for the same period rose from 45 million barrels in 1938 to 71 million barrels in 1943

Technology in the 1940’s was certainly embryonic in comparison to synthetic fuel manufacture technology today. This shows that even during the most adverse conditions, synthetic fuel production could provide one mechanism to create the high octane chemicals required by the aviation industry.

Other possibilities include the rise in the production of bio fuels. Boing and Airbus have research projects into  the replacement of current fuels with bio production.  The early results seem to show considerable cost implications for jet propulsion but real possibilities for shorter range turbo-prop aircraft. Alternatively, this could be blended with traditional fuels to ‘stretch’ kerosene as far as is possible.

If bio-fuels are the answer then we better get used to more, shorter low speed trips. My flight to Australia would still be possible but I may find it made up of several shorter legs.

One of the more surprising candidates is being developed separately by General Electrics and LEI. Using a combination of superconductors, the strength and lightness of graphene and lighter aircraft design electric jet propulsion may be viable in the very near future.

LEI has already successfully demonstrated a superconductor electric engine suitable for a Cessna light aircraft. Although this was only intended to be a proof of concept the results were enough to convince even the most hardened cynic.

On a larger scale, jet airliners designed to carry 120 passengers  powered by electric jet engines are well into the test production stages.

In this example, each wing has the usual single engine replaced with five smaller electric engines. As technologists have faced the inevitability of changing from aviation fuel the advantages of the alternatives also start  to emerge. This aircraft would be significantly quieter and the engines could be powered by a variety of far more sustainable sources.

Longer term, there is a strong candidate in liquid hydrogen. German and Dutch airlines are already powering their groundcrew vehicles with this fuel and both NASA and Boeing have plans to increase research in this area more than any other comparable technology.

All the major manufacturers have plans to refit their existing fleet and design new craft based around liquid hydrogen fuel.

Although it requires greater capacity in terms of volume compared to traditional fuel it is significantly lighter. For anything over mid range flights the fuel cost would be reduced over current fuels.

Two German and one Dutch airline are working closely with manufacturers to see the first hydrogen powered planes in our skies by 2040. One particularly canny chemist has worked out how to produce hydrogen as a by-product of bio-fuel production. Apart from the potential cost and weight advantages of hydrogen, the big advantage is that the pollution produced by the engines is non-existent. Just water vapour.

With the degree of innovation in this area, I’m confident that my trips to Melbourne are secure.  We have too much of a love affair with long haul flight to return to a period without this freedom. The most recent investors in the hydrogen fuel process are interestingly nothing to do with aviation but are the traditional car manufacturers wishing to learn from this experience.

With peak oil approaching (as it has been for many years) we may very well be at the end of the fossil fuel era and the dawning of the age of Hydrogen.

Memories of Manhatten

It isn’t often that I find myself literally stopping in my tracks. However, a short and powerful animation has done just that. Originally intended for broadcast on Children’s BBC in the UK, I have no hesitation is saying I found it thought provoking, dramatic and very moving. It was on Saturday of the recent weekend when I accidentally flicked to a channel showing the material. Although it was part way through I was so engaged with it that I watched to the end and then found it online to watch from the start.

Little Boy

The last week marked seventy years since the detonation of an atomic bomb over Hiroshima. The innocently named ‘little boy’ was released at around 32.000 feet from the Enola Gay at 08.15 local time.  After falling for just over 40 seconds it’s detonation arguably led to the shortening of World War II and undoubtedly shaping the military geopolitics of the next 50 years.

In the second following detonation 70,000 people were killed by the force of the detonation simply vaporised by the explosive power of the device. Over the next days and weeks a further 100,000 died from the fallout and radiation poisoning.

The ‘little boy’ had an explosive payload of 15 kilotones, that being the equivalent of 15,000 tons of TNT. At the time, this destructive power was simply beyond the comprehension of many hearing of the explosion.

In fact, the second detonation at Nagasaki was larger. The ‘big man’ device was closer to 20 kilotones and given the geography and make up of Nagasaki was considerably more destructive. Knowing this, how can you make an animation detailing the events of that day?  Simply put, by humanising the story, putting the viewpoint of a young girl who found herself on the outskirts of Hiroshima on that fateful morning.

The skill of the animators in sympathetically presenting those events was based on the real life experiences of a now well known Japanese poet. However this powerful example of the impact of such weapons has done little within Japan to silence the growing voices for the re-introduction  of Japan’s capacity to wield such weapons as a nation.

Prime Minister Abe

Following its defeat at the end of world war II, Japan introduced a greatly revised pacifist constitution. This prevented aggressive armed forces (although it allowed the country to retain a greatly reduced self protection force).

Last year, Prime Ministe Abe reinterpreted aspects of the constitution to broaden the definition of self defence. As a result, Japan could and has now publically stated would come to the support of American forces if attacked by growing Chinese power in the region.

Similarly, weaponry seen as unconstitutional just ten years ago  is now permitted. These include long range anti aircraft and anti missile defensive weapons.

This move had the unforeseen result of bringing traditionalist and nationalist Japanese voices joining in a call for the ultimate self-defence  capability , nuclear weapons.

Whilst current anti-proliferation laws and the political balance of the country is unlikely to see Japan develop these, it might see further deployment of strategic weaponry from allies such as the United States.

Hiroshima building

The fact that a nation has a right to defend itself and its people is not in dispute. However, the irony of Japanese protester demanding nuclear weapons outside the shell of the most famous surviving building in Hiroshima seems lost on those taking part.

A fact which may give pause for thought for those calling for this type of rearmament relates to the growth in power of weapons  since 1945.

The ‘little boy’ explosion flattened an area of some ten square miles. Even allowing for the construction methods of Japanese housing at the time this was devastating force which virtually nothing hit by the blast wall was able to withstand.

The ‘standard’ yield on most atomic weapons is no longer the 15 kilotons of the little boy. Most carry an explosive force of 15,000 kilotons. I wonder if those in all countries who call for the ultimate protection of nuclear weapons could look at Hiroshima and imagine something one thousand times as destructive.

I for one hope that in the week in which the events of 70 years ago are remembered, we might all consider the futility of weapons that are now so powerful they could not be used tactically and would ensure joint annihilation. We may not be able to unlearn the knowledge coming out of the Manhatten project, but we can all play a part in preventing further reliance and proliferation.

When the politics of greed falls silent.

Bill Gates

Love him or loath him William Henry “Bill” Gates III is a figure you would have to work very hard to avoid.

Whether you look at him as an entrepreneur, a technologist, self-made man, co-founder of Microsoft, philanthropist or social commentator he is often a figure who produces strong opinions.

According to Forbes, Bill Gates has a personal net wealth of $79.5 Billion. That in and of itself is enough to make him the subject of dislike, even hatred by some around the world. To put that figure in perspective, that is greater than the gross domestic product of countries including Luxemburg, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kenya, Panama and Bahrain.

Of course, whether any individual should have that much personal wealth is at least in part a function of your political beliefs. Whether you see this as an obscene example of untrammelled capitalism or the embodiment of the American dream is a matter for you. Personally, I take a rather more ambivalent and hopefully pragmatic view. For me, it depends in part on how that wealth was acquired and perhaps more importantly what the person who holds this wealth does with his or her riches.

Gates Foundation

So given that measuring stick, what has Bill Gates done with his undoubted fortune ?

I was one of those mildly sceptical in 2000 when I heard of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation being launched with a view to reduce poverty and sickness. I remember thinking the aims were rather motherhood and apple pie. However, I would  be the first to say I missed the simplicity of its aims.

The Foundation is now the biggest  in the world and has made significant inroads into the vaccination of some of the poorest communities in the world. Apart from this, it has made real progress towards not just the reduction but the near eradication of diseases such as Polio, elephantiasis and river blindness.
In 2008 Bill Gates announced that his fortune would be donated to charitable causes on his death rather than being passed to his children. He stated that he would rather make a lasting contribution to the world and not create another wealthy dynasty just for the sake of it.

Before looking at some of the outcomes (which I admit took me by surprise), here’s another statistic that puts the undoubted wealth of this individual into perspective. Over his lifetime, Gates has already given away $29.5 billion. Again, that is greater than the GDP of countries such as Bolivia, Cyprus or Jamaica. Put another way, he has given away more than fifty times the personal wealth of Queen Elizabeth II. – Some track record.

Better seed choice/research bring greater yields

When researching the results delivered by the Gates foundation (in close collaboration with UNICEF and the World Health Organisation) I was amazed at their successes so far. The number of children under five who die each year worldwide has been nearly cut in half, from a high of nearly 13 million to 6.5 million today.  Drought-tolerant seeds are dramatically increasing agricultural yields; economies in the once-desperate countries in sub-Saharan Africa are now matching the developed world in rate of annual growth.

“We’re already moving toward an HIV tipping point,” says Melinda Gates, “when the number of HIV-positive people in sub-Saharan Africa who are in treatment will exceed the number of people becoming newly infected.”

What surprises me is the relatively low profile of these efforts and achievements. It was only when watching an Episode of The Big Bang theory that I wondered how Ebola had been tackled in the recent west African outbreak.

In a recent interview, Bill Gates explained how his foundation has an eye to the future with his view of what poses the greatest threat to humanity over the next 50-100 years. His fear is not that some rogue scientist develops a killer pathogen (a la Big Bang). Instead, he believes that the risk is simply that something as innocuous as the flu virus could mutate by chance into something as aggressive as the Spanish flu of 1918.

This is where the scale of the donations made by the Gates took me by surprise. One the United States and the United Kingdom give more as countries to the eradication of health issues such as those the Foundation target. Whilst it may never overshadow the work in sub Saharan Africa, the foundation is also considering how we should plan and prepare for a major pandemic (whether natural or manufactured).

What is worrying or rather depressing (at least to me) is that the World Health Organisation, UNICEF, Gates Foundation and similar organisations agree on one thing. We could probably tackle the issue of preparedness for outbreaks such as Ebola, SARS or similar pandemics if we had the political will.

In this case, the political will equates to the willingness to fund the resources and preparation. This would amount to just under 1% of the defence budgets of most western countries . Ironically, the largest standing armies, navies and air power will have zero impact on preventing any major pandemic.

I will admit to having been critical of multibillionaire figures such as Bill Gates in the past. I still hear many voices criticising his wealth and resulting carefree lifestyle. What I don’t often hear is any credit where it is due. It appears by any objective measure that hundreds of thousands if not millions of lives have been positively  impacted by the philanthropic side  to this wealthy individual. Far better than just stashing the cash in an offshore account.

So I for one will be following and supporting the continued work of this progressive and successful foundation and am not ashamed to say a big thank you to Bill Gates.

Has traditional Government run its natural course?

Much has changed in the 170 years since Charles Barry was successful with his competition entry to redesign the Houses of Parliament. The current buildings replaced the previous Parliamentary structures destroyed by fire in 1834.

The subsequent reconstruction of the embankments in the Victorian era may have done much to improve the tidal flow, flooding risk and sanitation of Westminster. However, it has done little to solidify the very ground on which the Palace of Westminster was built. Subsidence is already a known risk within parts of Parliament square, so much so that Big Ben is already leaning 18 inches from the perpendicular. The £1 billion pound bill likely to save the building could keep the Palace standing, however, it may be a metaphor for some of the deeper challenges facing the institution of Government itself.

Wolfie Smith: Power to the people

For those who can remember uk tv comedies of the 1970’s, one political war cry probably stands out above any other, that of Citizen (Wolfie) Smith with his promise of ‘Power to the People’. A rather harmless and underwhelming anarchist type who felt power should be returned from Central Governments (of all colours) and vested in the local man on the street.

At the time the the British Government was drawn from one of the two dominant parties swapping between Conservative and Labour. Devolution of any kind to Scotland and Wales was wishful thinking at best. Given this, it was hardly surprising that the rise of people power and localism against national governments was seen as little more than an unattainable pipe dream.

In the intervening years, significant changes to the structures and manner of government have taken place. In the  1970’s Britain was part of what was then the European Economic Community (EEC). At the time, the EEC was a smaller body consisting of nine member states. It’s focus was at that time the formation of a ‘common market’ across its members. Putting the political merits of ever closer union to one side, the EEC of the 1970 had few aspirations to undertake supra-national governance. The weight of EU directives (whether you agree with them or not) simply wasn’t of the same scale in the mid 70’s. Regardless of how well it did them, the role of Parliament and the job of government was wider at that time.

Add to this the introduction of unitary authorities in the 1980’s and some of the responsibilities exercised by ministers and whitehall have left Parliament to their respective local authorities. On top of this significant powers have been passed to the Scottish government and Welsh Assembly. All in all, this represents a significant shift of ownership from the days of 1970’s central ministry control.

Ballot Paper

One electoral and representational mechanism has also seen a rise in popularity (certainly in parts of Europe) over the same period. The rise of the referendum has been quite noticable in the UK, a jurisdiction where referenda was traditionally seen as something of a failure in Parliamentary democracy by some.

In recent years, referenda have been held to consider subjects as varied as further devolution, and the voting system for general elections. Further promises have been made to take the public view on continued membership of the European  Union and the possibility of a futher devolution powers referendum in Wales.

Of course, the more referendums are held, the more the voting public get used to them and expect their voice to win sway on the most significant issues. Many European countries (including the UK) have legislative requirement for a referendum if changes to the existing European Union treaties are necessary. Similarly, the republic of Ireland has recently put the question of gay marriage to the popular vote.

Politicians who have regularly opposed referenda felt this introduction could pose a significant risk to the representational model used in the British Parliament. Traditionally, members of Parliament don’t feel compelled to echo the popular views of their constituency (unless it is high profile or their majority is wafer thin). Instead, the constituency elects an MP to make value judgements on their behalf. Some believe the growth of referenda may subtly change this emphasis and in doing so change the nature of Parliament and how Government works.

Digital Voting?

Perhaps one of the largest changes over the past thirty years has been the introduction of new technology along with its constant evolution. Surprisingly, one of the few areas it has addressed is elections and the counting of votes. However, serious money is being spent to test the viability of digital voting both for UK General elections and to encourage wider participation in the political process.

Digital voting has already been introduced for high profile events such as the Oscars as well as a number of US state elections. So far the results have been encouraging with results being almost instantaneously available with no issues over security of voting having been raised to date.

Campaign group WebRoots Democracy recenlt published a report in which they found that the introduction of online voting could boost turnout in a UK general election by nine million. Even if that is only half right that would be an unsurpassed achievement in improving political engagement.

The report also found that online voting in the UK could reduce the cost per vote by a third, saving taxpayers around £12.8m per general election. This would also significantly reducing the number of accidentally spoilt ballots, speed up the counting process, and enabling vision-impaired voters to cast a secret ballot for the first time. The report has been supported by the newly elected government who are proposing trials with a view to moving to digital elections as soon as practicable.

Todays Queens speach promised further devolution for Wales and demands for further powers to be granted to the Scottish Parliament soon followed. Whatever is decided in those debates what is clear is that the House of Commons is far from the powerhouse of democracy it was in the pre-war era.

Whilst no serious commentator would suggest that government is unecessary, what is increasingly clear is that the system and structures currently in place in the UK are becoming increasingly unfit for purpose having been overtaken by events.

It seems inevitable that some fairly major changes are likely to the way the component parts of the UK relate to each other. This is bound to have an impact on the style and feel of government. The current flavour of the month is a federal model of types with the Houses of Parliament being the Federal legislature dealing with UK wide issues such as defence and foreign policy. What seems to be certain is that the current status quo is likely to be a short term holding position.